Generating a random number within a large range based on probabilities - javascript

I am curious how Stake.com managed to create the game "Limbo" where the odds of a multiplier happening is specific to the probability they've calculated. Here's the game : https://stake.com/casino/games/limbo
For example :
Multiplier -> x2
Probability -> 49.5% chance.
What it means is you have a 49.5% chance of winning because those are the odds that the multiplier will actually hit a number above x2.
If you set the multiplier all the way up to x1,000,000. You have a 0.00099% chance of actually hitting 1,000,000.
It's not a project I'm working on but I'm just extremely curious how we could achieve this.
Example:
Math.floor(Math.random()*1000000)
is not as random as we think, since Math.random() generates a number between 0-1. When paired with a huge multiplier like 1,000,000. We would actually generate a 6-figure number most of the time and it's not as random as we thought.
I've read that we have to convert it into a power law distribution but I'm not sure how it works. Would love to have more material to read up on how it works.

It sounds like you need to define some function that gives the probability of winning for a given multiplier N. These probabilities don't have to add up to 1, because they are not part of the same random variable; there is a unique random variable for each N chosen and two events, win or lose; we can subscript them as win(N) and lose(N). We really only need to define win(N) since lose(N) = 1 - win(N).
Something like an exponential functional would make sense here. Consider win(N) = 2^(1 - N). Then we get the following probabilities of winning:
n win(n)
1 1
2 1/2
3 1/4
4 1/8
etc
Or we could use just an inverse function: win(N) = 1/N
n win(n)
1 1
2 1/2
3 1/3
...
Then to actually see whether you win or lose for a given N, just choose a random number in some range - [0.0, 1.0) works fine for this purpose - and see whether that number is less than the win(N). If so, it's a win, of not, it's a loss.
Yes, technically speaking, it is probably true that the floating point numbers are not really uniformly distributed over [0, 1) when calling standard library functions. If you really need that level of precision then you have a much harder problem. But, for a game, regular rand() type functions should be plenty uniform for your purposes.

Related

Picking a random item from array with equal distribution

I want to pick a random item from an array at random.
Math.floor(Math.random() * array.length);
Is the way to go, but as far as I know this will cause a Uniform distribution to occur which means that the average is (lowbound+upperbound)/2 translated to an array with 10 elements the lower bound is the first element and the upper bound is the last element causes an average of 5, which is not random
Therefore, I looked at the frequency distribution of this way of random picking an item by having 10 elements and picking one with the code above. The element represents the index and is pushed into an array. After 10000 numbers, the frequency is counted and given.
This has the following results:
Index: Frequency
0: 1083
1: 996
2: 1022
3: 966
4: 958
5: 962
6: 1044
7: 1045
8: 972
9: 952
Ofc, this is only 1 run of 10k numbers. But it shows that index 0 has a 10.8% chance and index 9 has a 9.5% chance. This difference is 1.3% which I find quite a lot.
Are there methods that can do this better? For example, get to 0.05% difference in numbers? The ideal situation would be that they are all 10% (equally distributed).
If you can precompute the result (i.e. you need a finite number of results, not an infinite stream) and the number of results is divisible by the number of items, you can get a perfect distribution:
Generate an array that repeats the items until you've got enough, i.e. [1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, ...]. The array is thus guaranteed to have exactly as many instances of each item.
Shuffle the array with a fair shuffle algorithm, e.g. Fisher-Yates. The array still has exactly as many instances of each item.
If you do need an infinite stream, you could use something like an "item bag" model (which, btw, is how the blocks in Tetris are chosen):
Fill a "bag" with your items ([1, 2, 3]). Shuffle it (as above).
When you need an item, pop the first one from the shuffled bag.
If the bag is empty, re-fill it according to step 1.
The only case where this doesn't have a perfect distribution is if you stop "mid-bag".
Here another method - count number of samples already happen, select values from Categorical distribution but with probability INVERSE to the count, thus more frequent item will be less probable to be sampled next time.
Some code (in C#)
import MathNet.Numerics.Distributions;
static void Main() {
const int N = 4;
var counts = new int [N] {1, 1, 1, 1};
var weights = new double [N] {1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0};
while (true) {
int v = Categorical.Sample(weights[k]); // sample one value in [0...N)
// update counts and weights
counts[v] += 1;
weights[v] = 1.0/(double)counts[v];
// use v here for something
...
}
}
Actually, any monotonically growing function of count will do, f.e.
weights[v] = 1.0/(1.0 + .5*(double)counts[v]);
might work, or
var squared => (x) => x*x;
weights[v] = 1.0/(7.0 + .25*squared((double)counts[v]));
or
weights[v] = 1.0/(3.0 + Math.Sqrt((double)counts[v]));
What you have shown in your question is simply the fact that the JavaScript random number generator is simulating not just uniformly distributed, but also independent random numbers; each chosen number behaves as though it were independent of any other choice. Because of this independence, each number "doesn't care" how often each other number was chosen, as long as with each choice, each possible outcome is as likely as any other (according to the JavaScript generator).
If you want a distribution that "feels" more uniform, you will have to adjust the chances of each outcome, so that the chances depend on previous outcomes. A previous answer showed some ways how this can be done. Here is another, which I gave as an answer to a similar question.
Give each item the same weight, specified as a positive integer. For example, give a weight of 20 to each item.
Use a weighted-choice-with-replacement algorithm. Perhaps the simplest is rejection sampling, described as follows. Assume that the highest weight is max and each weight is 0 or greater. To choose an integer in the interval [1, weights.length] using rejection sampling:
Choose a uniform random integer i in [1, weights.length].
With probability weights[i]/max, return i. Otherwise, go to step 1. (For example, if all the weights are integers greater than 0, choose a uniform random integer in [1, max] and if that number is weights[i] or less, return i, or go to step 1 otherwise.)
There are many other ways to make a weighted choice besides rejection sampling; see my note on weighted choice algorithms.
As each item is chosen, reduce its weight by 1 to make it less likely to be chosen.
If all the weights are 0, assign each item the same weight chosen in step 1 (in this example, 20).
You didn't specify the kind of application you had in mind, but I see this desire for a "more uniform" distribution come up most often in games that wish to control which random numbers appear, to make the random outcomes appear "fairer" to players. In that case, however, you should also consider whether it may be better to make an (ordinary) independent uniform random choice instead, especially if you care whether players could gain an unfair advantage by predicting the random outcomes.

Seed-based world generation using sin

I'm tried to make some world generation mechanism using Math.random() whenever I needed something random, but then decided that I wanted it seed-based, so, given a seed, I changed all of the Math.random() to Math.sin(seed++)/2+0.5, hoping it would do the same thing, but would be the same if the seed was the same seed.
Then someone made me notice that the sin wave hasn't got even distribution, and finally I saw why some of my code was working strangely.
I was wondering if there was a simple fix, or if there isn't, another very simple seed based randomizer like this
So, I looked at your method, t1wc, and I found that it isn't actually evenly distributed. It is significantly more likely to spit out numbers near 0 or near 1 than it is to spit out numbers near 0.5, for example. This is just a consequence of the way that the sine function works.
Instead, you might try using a method called Blum Blum Shub (named after the authors of the original paper, wonderfully). It is evenly distributed and quite fast. Given a seed, it works as follows:
Square the seed and put the result in a temporary variable (x).
Take the mod of x base M.
M is a product of two large primes.
The value of x is a new seed to be used for future calculations.
Return x/M as your pseudo-random number. It will be evenly distributed between 0 and 1.
Below is a simple implementation of a Blum Blum Shub:
var SeededRand = function(seed, mod1, mod2)
{
return function()
{
seed = (seed*seed) % (mod1*mod2);
return seed/(mod1*mod2);
};
};
If you want to make a new random number generator, you just call:
var rand = SeededRand(seed, mod1, mod2);
Where seed is some initial seed (1234567890 works well), and mod1 and mod2 are some large primes (7247 and 7823 work well). rand is just a variable that I've defined to hold the output.
Now, to start getting random values, you just call:
rand();
Which will spit out a different value each time you run it.
If you have any questions, please ask!
There is a very nice seed-based randomizing script already made. It can be found here.
ok guys, found out this is what I'm really looking for:
(((Math.sin(seed.value++)/2+0.5)*10000)%100)/100
It sends out even spreaded numbers, and I guess it's a lot simpler than any other number generator I've seen

Bias in randomizing normally distributed numbers (javascript)

I’m having problems generating normally distributed random numbers (mu=0 sigma=1)
using JavaScript.
I’ve tried Box-Muller's method and ziggurat, but the mean of the generated series of numbers comes out as 0.0015 or -0.0018 — very far from zero!! Over 500,000 randomly generated numbers this is a big issue. It should be close to zero, something like 0.000000000001.
I cannot figure out whether it’s a method problem, or whether JavaScript’s built-in Math.random() generates not exactly uniformly distributed numbers.
Has someone found similar problems?
Here you can find the ziggurat function:
http://www.filosophy.org/post/35/normaldistributed_random_values_in_javascript_using_the_ziggurat_algorithm/
And below is the code for the Box-Muller:
function rnd_bmt() {
var x = 0, y = 0, rds, c;
// Get two random numbers from -1 to 1.
// If the radius is zero or greater than 1, throw them out and pick two
// new ones. Rejection sampling throws away about 20% of the pairs.
do {
x = Math.random()*2-1;
y = Math.random()*2-1;
rds = x*x + y*y;
}
while (rds === 0 || rds > 1)
// This magic is the Box-Muller Transform
c = Math.sqrt(-2*Math.log(rds)/rds);
// It always creates a pair of numbers. I'll return them in an array.
// This function is quite efficient so don't be afraid to throw one away
// if you don't need both.
return [x*c, y*c];
}
If you generate n independent normal random variables, the standard deviation of the mean will be sigma / sqrt(n).
In your case n = 500000 and sigma = 1 so the standard error of the mean is approximately 1 / 707 = 0.0014. The 95% confidence interval, given 0 mean, would be around twice this or (-0.0028, 0.0028). Your sample means are well within this range.
Your expectation of obtaining 0.000000000001 (1e-12) is not mathematically grounded. To get within that range of accuracy, you would need to generate about 10^24 samples. At 10,000 samples per second that would still take 3 quadrillon years to do...this is precisely why it's good to avoid computing things by simulation if possible.
On the other hand, your algorithm does seem to be implemented correctly :)

Javascript: explain this one line of code to me please

I have this simple array:
var RedirUrl = new Array(4);
RedirUrl[0] = 'http://mafi.se/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html';
RedirUrl[1] = 'http://ifurls.com/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html';
RedirUrl[2] = 'http://ez.se/xml-update/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html';
RedirUrl[3] = 'http://ilovre.net/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html';
RedirUrl[4] = 'http://rihel.com/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html';
and then
RedirUrl.sort(function() {return 0.5 - Math.random()})
The last bit is what is confusing me.
I understand the "sort" and I understand the Math.random but the return 0.5 confuses me... what exactly is that?
(Needless to say I downloaded it off the net as it does what i want it to do... but i just dont understand it.)
It's sorting the list of URLs with a sorting method that randomly returns values that are greater than or less than 0 in about half the cases each.
Math.random() returns a number betweeen 0 and 1. Therefore 0.5 - Math.random() is a randomly decided value between -0.5 and 0.5. About half of those values are greater than zero and half of those are less than zero.
So about half of the time the comparison function will say that the first object is greater than the second and half of the time it will say the opposite.
It's a simple way to randomly shuffle the array. As has been pointed out in the comments, it's not a good way to shuffle an array (because the distribution is not even).
This question has a working implementation of the known-good Fisher-Yates shuffle.
sort() takes a function for comparing values in an array as it's argument. Here the sort() method is told to give a random number between 0.0 and 1.0, and the 0.5 is there to make the random number go between -0.5 to 0.5, this randomly saying lesser or greater than.
A comparator function should return < 0 to indicate that the first value is smaller, > 0 to indicate that it's larger, and 0 to indicate equality. Math.random() returns a number between 0 and 1. So, by doing the subtraction, you get random ordering!
This would shuffle the array. If a function is used withing Array.sort() then it usually has two parameters which are compared Array.sort(function(a,b){}). A return value less than 0 indicates that a is before b, greater than 0 that a is after b and 0 that they have the same order. Using 0.5 - Math.random() means that you should get values greater or less than 0 at random.
Seems the script will randomly shuffle this array by having the compare function randomly returns a value between -0.5 and +0.5
Also it generates an array of length 4 but then fills it with 5 items
I suggest this format instead
var RedirUrl = [
'http://mafi.se/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html',
'http://ifurls.com/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html',
'http://ez.se/xml-update/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html',
'http://ilovre.net/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html',
'http://rihel.com/mf_redir/new_install_'+this_version+'.html'
]
Here sort will be performing a sort based on the comparison function that you pass to it.
In your case, it is:
function() {return 0.5 - Math.random()}
Assuming you are familiar with comparison based sorting, the function should return a negative value indicating that the left hand side value is less, zero if they are equal and positive if left hand side value is greater than the right hand side value, much like C function strcmp().
Looking into the function that you have, it will try to perform a random sort, that is try to shuffle the array.
On an additional note, this kind of shuffling algorithm is not an ideal one. It will be self contradictory. Since everything will occur at random, it may lead to situations where say, a.

What are the chances that JavaScript Math.Random() will create the same number twice in a row?

Is this correct? using - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_probability
Looks like values are from .0000000000000000 to .9999999999999999
Probability of happening twice = p^2 = (1/9999999999999999)^2 = 1.0 e-32
I think I am missing something here?
Also, how does being a pseudo random number generator change this calculation?
Thank You.
In an ideal world Math.random() would be absolutely random, with one output being completely independent from another, which (assuming p=the probability of any given number being produced) results in a probably of p^2 for any value being repeated immediately after another (as others have already said).
In practice people want Math.random to be fast which means pseudo-random number generators are used by the engines. There are many different kinds of PRNG but the most basic is a linear congruential generator, which is basically a function along the lines of:
s(n + 1) = some_prime * s(n) + some_value mod some_other_prime
If such a generator is used then you won't see a value repeated until you've called random() some_other_prime times. You're guaranteed of that.
Relatively recently however it's become apparent that this kind of behaviour (coupled with seeding the PRNGs with the current time) could be used for some forms tracking have led to browsers doing a number of things that mean you can't assume anything about subsequent random() calls.
I think the probability of getting two numbers in a row is 1 divided by the range of the generator, assuming that it has a good distribution.
The reason for this is that the first number can be anything, and the second number needs to just be that number again, which means we don't care about the first number at all. The probability of getting the same number twice in a row is the same as the probability of getting any particular number once.
Getting some particular number twice in a row, e.g. two 0.5s in a row, would be p^2; however, if you just care about any number twice in a row, it's just p.
If the numbers were truly random, you'd expect them, indeed, to appear with probability 1/p, so twice that would be 1/p^2.
The value for p is not exactly the one you have though, because the numbers are being represented internally as binary. Figure out how many bits of mantissa the numbers have in javascript and use that for your combinatoric count.
The "pseudorandom" part is more interesting, because the properties of pseudorandom number generators vary. Knuth does some lovely work with that in Seminumerical Algorithms, but basically most usual PN generators have at least some spectral distributiuon. Cryptograp0hic PN generators are generally stronger.
Update: The amount of time shouldn't be significant. Whether it's a millisecond or a year, as long as you don't update the state The probabilities will stay the same.
The probability that you would get 2 given numbers is (1/p)^2, but the probability that you get 2 of same numbers (any) is 1/p. That is because the first number can be anything, and the second just needs to match that.
You can kind of find out, just let it run a few days :)
var last = 0.1;
var count = 0 | 0;
function rand(){
++count;
var num = Math.random();
if(num === last){
console.log('count: '+count+' num: '+num);
}
last = num;
}
while(true) rand();

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